Many go-to summertime staples — including ground beef, popsicles, and potato salad — are up more than 20% in just one year, nearly five times the overall inflation rate.
As the United States approaches its semiquincentennial, families across the country are ready to fire up the grill, fill the cooler, and celebrate 250 years of American independence. But this Fourth of July, the price tag on the great American backyard barbecue is high enough to discourage many families from celebrating altogether. According to a new analysis from Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation, many go-to summertime staples — including ground beef, popsicles, and potato salad — are up more than 20% in just one year, nearly five times the overall inflation rate.
For millions of Americans, prices are rising faster than their paychecks. In fact, the recent surge in energy prices wiped out a year and a half of wage gains for average American workers. A recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that 43% of Americans report being worse off financially than they were a year ago — the highest level of economic dissatisfaction in four years. Two-thirds of Americans say cost has had some or a great deal of impact on their summer plans. It’s clear that high temperatures aren’t the only thing making Americans sweat this summer.
Nowhere is this more apparent than at the meat counter, where the cost of ground beef has surged 20.3%, and a pack of Ball Park beef hot dogs will set shoppers back 13.2% more than last summer. At the deli counter, the price of store-prepared potato salad and coleslaw are up 23% and 12.9%, respectively. Those looking for a sweet treat will find higher prices, too: cherry pie filling is up 14.4%.1
Protein price tags are up bigtime this summer. An already depleted cattle herd, which has fallen to a seventy-five-year low amid consolidation, drought, and rising costs for ranchers, faces the threat of a screwworm outbreak as reported cases climb in Texas. The flesh-eating parasite had been eradicated from the United States for decades—after outbreaks cost cattle ranchers and surrounding communities hundreds of millions in the 1960s and 1970s — in large part due to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s screwworm-monitoring program. That program, costing just $15 million per year (a small fraction of the nearly $800 million per year it saves American farmers), was eliminated by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency last year. As a result, states are now scrambling to control the outbreak before lasting damage is done and sticker prices climb even further for American shoppers.
Trump’s war in Iran continues to spike the prices of everyday essentials for American families, and they know exactly where to point the blame for these rising costs. Nearly nine in ten voters say that the president’s conflict is to blame for rising gas prices. His unpopular war gets the stamp of approval from just 29% of Americans, yet even fewer approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living.
Keeping cool over the holiday weekend will come at a steep cost. Frozen essentials, such as a bag of ice to fill the cooler and ice pops, are on the rise due to Trump’s war in Iran. Because these treats have to stay chilled from the factory to the supermarket freezer, they depend heavily on refrigerated transportation and storage, leaving them especially vulnerable to lingering fuel and energy surges from the conflict in the Middle East. Families are stuck between paying more for pricey frozen treats or the high price of cranking the air conditioner as electricity bills are expected to be more than 10% higher this summer.
Food items made from or packaged in plastic—like plastic forks, strawberries, and chips—posted some of the highest increases, and there’s little relief in sight. Plastic packaging materials are made from crude oil, and the Middle East accounts for anywhere between 25 and 40% of the global supply of certain plastics and plastic inputs. The months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the industry’s supply chains. Wholesale prices for plastics have risen nearly 25% since the start of the war in Iran. Some industry experts have said the effects of four months of sustained high oil prices could linger for one to two years.
For Americans who thought they could avoid high prices by leaving the kitchen behind this Fourth, they will have to think again. For holiday jetsetters, airfares have climbed roughly 27% over the past year in the wake of rising jet fuel costs. And Americans hitting the road this Independence Day will feel the pinch at the pump, as gas prices remain stubbornly high.
While the administration touts a fragile ceasefire with Iran and modest declines in the cost of fuel, these developments offer families little relief from the pressures they’re facing this holiday. Gas prices remain roughly 40% higher than last summer and are still sitting near or above $4.00 per gallon across the country. Since the start of the war in February, higher gas prices have drained nearly $260 from household budgets. Nearly half of American adults say they do not plan to travel at all this summer, citing affordability as the single largest obstacle.
Price pressures aren’t squeezing all families equally: the CEO of Hyatt Hotels recently remarked that high-income households are now a majority of their revenue base as low- and middle-income households pull back on discretionary travel spending in light of rising fuel costs. Walmart President and CEO Dave Guggina struck a similar tone, saying that lower-income shoppers are “feeling more pressured and making trade-offs, particularly in discretionary categories.” Research from the New York Fed found that, in the wake of higher gasoline prices, low-income consumers pulled back on purchases at the pump while high-income drivers maintained their fuel spending.
Tariffs have made the price of fireworks explode. Nearly 100% of fireworks are imported from China, and Trump’s chaotic tariff regime over the past fifteen months has sent the supply chain spiraling. Tariffs are now roughly 25% for imported fireworks, but for much of the past year, they were higher. Firework retailers were able to sell through pre-tariff inventories last year, but with those spent down, the stock on the shelves this year is priced much higher. The owner of a firework stand in Cottleville, Missouri said, “this is probably the most expensive we’ve ever seen fireworks.” Communities across the country are being forced to solicit donations or cancel their firework displays altogether in the face of higher prices. The city of Sultan, Washington saw its costs increase by 60%, while Ferguson, Missouri was forced to cancel its celebration when its pyrotechnics bill doubled. In Lebanon, New Hampshire, the fireworks display has historically run the city about $5,000, but this year they’re facing a $20,000 minimum bill.
America’s independence anniversary isn’t the only occasion to mark this Fourth of July. One year ago, President Trump signed the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law, which awarded wealthy Americans with sweeping tax cuts paid for by cuts to vital programs Americans depend upon. Since then, more than four million Americans have been kicked off of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP; formerly known as food stamps) and more than five million have lost health insurance coverage.
These cuts could not be coming at a worse time for Americans who need them most. As Kroger’s CEO Greg Foran told investors in a recent earnings call, “The customer is under pressure. High gas prices and reduced SNAP benefits are squeezing budgets…That pressure is showing up in the market.” And recent polling that TCF commissioned from Morning Consult revealed that more than half of voters have cut back on healthcare or taken on debt to cope with rising healthcare costs.
This Fourth of July, Americans are finding out the hard way that the prices of their favorite summer traditions are growing faster than their paychecks. From the burgers on the grill to the sunscreen in the beach bag, this year’s holiday is a reminder that policy decisions made in Washington impact consumers across the country. The barbeques will end and the fireworks will fade, but the higher price of celebrating America’s birthday won’t disappear anytime soon.
[1] Authors’ own analysis and calculations based in part on data reported by NIQ for the listed categories for the one-week periods ending June 6, 2026 and June 5, 2025 for the total U.S. market and total FMCG retailer channel. The conclusions drawn from the NIQ data are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of NIQ.