Trump’s Economy Is Squeezing Working Families — And Republicans Just Made It Worse

Trump’s Economy Is Squeezing Working Families — And Republicans Just Made It Worse

As Americans brace for a recession, Republicans voted to increase health care, grocery, utility, and education prices 

As Trump’s chaotic trade policies continue to raise prices for consumers and small businesses, Americans are worried a recession is imminent. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they believe a recession is coming in the next six months, according to a survey released by LendingTree this week.

While working families brace for the worst, House Republicans yesterday passed a bill that will increase health care, grocery, utility, and higher education costs, forcing working families to foot the bill for billionaire tax breaks. Read here 13 ways prices will rise for working families under the Republican tax plan.

Groundwork’s Chief of Policy & Advocacy Alex Jacquez released the following statement: 

“Trump’s trade chaos has working families worried that the worst is yet to come. Yet, House Republicans voted in the dark of night to take health care and food assistance away from those who need it most. Trump and his allies in Congress are making hardworking Americans feel even more pain to cover the cost of a giant tax cut for their billionaire donors.”

This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular and hurting the economy.

Polling:

• Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they believe a recession is coming in the next six months, according to a survey from LendingTree.
• A new Navigator poll shows that only one in three Americans support the Republican budget Congress is considering and strongly oppose tax cuts for the rich. The data also shows that Americans overwhelmingly favor Medicaid to benefit low-income Americans, Americans with disabilities, the elderly and children.
• A new Economist/YouGov poll found that 43% of Americans are “strongly or somewhat opposed” to the Republicans’ budget plan and 40% believe that this plan will hurt them and their immediate family. Very few want to see social services defunded or eliminated; a majority of Americans would like to see funding increased for Medicare (58%) and Social Security (62%).
• A New York Times/Siena College poll found that voters were more likely to approve of President Trump if they were not closely following major news stories of his first 100 days in office. The data also showed that Trump has lost ground overall on the economy, with just 43% of respondents approving of Trump’s economic agenda—compared to 64% of voters who approved of his handling of the economy during his first term.
• A new Reuters/Ipsos survey reported that only 39% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the U.S. economy. The poll also showed that Trump’s approval rating ticked down to 42% from 44% just a week earlier.
• A report from the Center for Labor & a Just Economy at Harvard Law School and Columbia Labor Lab showed that a majority of workers (union and non-union) experienced inflation of grocery prices, gas, rent, and mortgages. Nearly half (48%) of union members blamed ‘corporate greed’ for inflation while a majority (45%) of non-union workers blamed ‘government policies’ for an increase in prices.

Economic indicators:

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index “registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023,” falling 1% in April from a 0.8% decline in March. This mirrors The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index survey, which showed that sentiment declined for the fourth consecutive month. Consumer expectations are becoming more pessimistic about the future of the U.S. economy.
• The Philadelphia Fed’s May 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook reported price increases while overall business activity plunges.
• While the S&P Global Flash US PMI Index rose slightly from April lows, a look under the hood spells trouble for the economy. Export orders continue to fall, prices paid for goods and services are at highs matching the peak of inflation in August 2022, and manufacturing input inventories showed the largest increase on record, signaling a frontrunning of companies trying to get ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

Expert Commentary:

• Speaking at the firm’s investor day, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon warned that we haven’t seen the full effect of Trump’s tariffs yet: “People feel pretty good because you haven’t seen an effect of tariffs. The market came down 10 percent, it’s back up 10 percent. I think that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency… I think you’re going to see the effect even if these [tariff] levels stay where they are today.”
• Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, discussed worries surrounding the U.S. economy: “I do think the list of worries is growing… We are still waiting to see the actual effects of tariffs, both on earnings and the economy. And the things that are being added now—more recently student loan payments are restarting—is beginning to hit people’s credit scores. That’s about 9 million people now who potentially will have a hit to their credit scores and therefore will have challenges going out, buying a house, a car, a washer and dryer.”
• Groundwork Collaborative Executive Director Lindsay Owens wrote a new piece for TIME on how large, wealthy corporations funneled their tax gains from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into stock buybacks rather than investing in workers and innovation: “After the TCJA slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, corporate profits exploded. But rather than using these gains to hire more workers or raise wages, companies funneled the bulk of their windfall into stock buybacks and dividend payouts that line the pockets of their wealthy shareholders and boost their earnings reports. Between 2018 and 2022, S&P 500 companies alone spent over $6.4 trillion on buybacks and dividends, dwarfing investments in labor, infrastructure, or research.”
• Groundwork Collaborative Executive Director Lindsay Owens joined The New Republic’s “Daily Blast” podcast with Greg Sargent to break down how companies are not eating the tariffs and passing higher prices onto consumers: “Trump himself has made the likelihood that companies will exploit his tariff policy to go for bigger price increases than they otherwise would more likely. And that is because his tariff policy has been chaotic and on-again, off-again. The through line is people are expecting higher prices, but they have no idea how much higher they should be. Companies know that and in the haze and in the mirage, they’re going to exploit it.”
• Groundwork Collaborative Chief of Policy & Advocacy Alex Jacquez called out rising prices for working families ahead of Memorial Day weekend: “Across the country this weekend, many Americans plan to crack open a cold beer, fire up the grill, and take a dip in the pool, but Trump’s disastrous economic agenda is about to rain on their parade. From your favorite burger or brew to your swimsuit and air conditioning, Trump’s tariffs have put prices on the rise. Yet, instead of delivering relief for the working families struggling to make ends meet, Trump and Congressional Republicans are preparing to give another round of massive tax breaks to their billionaire donors, and pay for it by slashing basic needs programs like Medicaid and food assistance.”
• Groundwork Collaborative Senior Advisor for Economic Policy Emily DiVito urged the Senate Finance Committee to not confirm former U.S. Representative Billy Long (R-MO) as the next IRS Commissioner: “Billy Long can’t be trusted to lead an agency he would prefer to destroy and defraud. He spent his career in Congress working to dismantle the IRS and empower tax-evading corporations, and during his tenure as an inexperienced tax consultant, he gave fraudulent tax advice to businesses and individuals and peddled fake tribal tax credits… The Senate Finance Committee should reject his confirmation.”