State of Delusion: Trump Claims to Have “Won” Affordability As Working Families Struggle

State of Delusion: Trump Claims to Have “Won” Affordability As Working Families Struggle

Trump’s State of the Union address marked by soaring costs, a sputtering economy, and a president’s broken promises 

President Trump heads into his first State of the Union of his second term against a backdrop of rising prices and eroding confidence in his economy. Despite his promises to bring down prices, inflation under Trump has cost the average family over $1,600 in price hikes on essentials like housing and transportation – and yet he has called Americans’ affordability concerns a “hoax.”

Trump’s tariffs cost the average working family nearly $1,200 last year. Despite last week’s Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, American families won’t receive refunds any time soon, if at all. Just hours after the SCOTUS ruling, Trump doubled down, implementing sweeping global tariffs that will hike prices even further. The president has broken his promise to the American people to bring prices down. Working families are fed up.

A majority of Americans believe both the economy and the nation as a whole are worse off since Trump took office in 2025, according to recent AP-NORC polling. February’s consumer sentiment reading fell more than 10% from last year’s survey, reflecting widespread concerns about high prices and the struggling labor market. As Trump’s mismanagement continues, prices are unlikely to come down any time soon and he has nothing to share in his address that will offer comfort to consumers.

Groundwork polling shows that a majority (55%) of Americans believe Trump and Republicans are “not focused” on lowering the cost of housing, while three-quarters of respondents say they want the president to do more to show he’s actually focused on bringing down costs. According to recent Marist polling, the share of voters who approve of Trump’s handling of the economy has fallen to its lowest point across his two terms in office. Most Americans (60%) disapprove of Trump’s performance in the White House, with 65% disapproving of his handling of inflation, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.

No matter what Trump says in the upcoming State of the Union address, it won’t change the fact that working families know that the president and his lackeys in Congress alone bear responsibility for painfully high prices and a dragging economy.

Polling and Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:

• Recent polling reflects Americans’ loss of faith in Trump amid economic strain.
  • A new NPR-PBS News-Marist poll shows 57% of respondents say the state of the union is not strong, while 60% say the country is worse off than one year ago.
  • Recent polling from Pew Research Center finds that more than 4 in 5 voters are concerned about the cost of essentials, including health care (93% of respondents report being concerned), food (92%), housing (89%), and electricity (85%).
  • Politico polling shows half of respondents are finding it difficult to pay for food, and a majority of those (55%) blame Trump for the high prices.
• Economic growth slowed at the end of 2025. The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 4.4% in the third quarter. The deceleration dragged full-year growth to 2.2%, below 2024’s 2.8% pace. Spending remains concentrated among the top earners, while lower-income households are forced to cut back.
• As inflation persists, life’s becoming even less affordable in Trump’s economy. January’s Consumer Price Index shows prices up 2.4% from a year ago, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Essential prices continue to climb, including electricity up 6.3%, hospital services up 6.6%, and meat up 9.2%. December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed core prices were up 2.9% in 2025. Real disposable income decreased 0.3% in December, as paychecks fall behind price increases. Families are still paying more for everyday necessities, stretching already tight budgets.
• Job growth is faltering under Trump. Revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that just 181,000 jobs were added in 2025, far below the initial estimate of 584,000 jobs. That makes 2025 the weakest non-recessionary year for job growth since 2003. Without health care hiring, total employment would be down nearly 400,000 over the past year. Meanwhile, one in four unemployed Americans has been jobless for 27 weeks or longer, an increase of 25% from when Trump took office.
  • Young adults entering the job market are facing headwinds as the weakening labor market offers fewer opportunities and lower pay. Research from Revelio Labs found that inflation-adjusted starting salaries for college graduates fell 8% over the past year and are now 24% below their 2021 peak. According to new data from Goldman Sachs, hiring has slowed over the past few years in most sectors that traditionally employ large numbers of college graduates.
• Trump’s tariffs are forcing Americans to pay even more for essentials. Trump’s tariffs raised prices for households by $1,700 last year, according to a new report from the Joint Economic Committee.
  • The average tariff rate on imports jumped from 2.6% to 13% over the course of 2025. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates that U.S. consumers and businesses absorbed roughly 90% of the increased tariffs
  • The Harvard Pricing Lab found that Trump’s tariffs have added roughly 0.83 percentage points to overall inflation to date. In other words, inflation would be below the Fed’s 2% target if not for Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
  • According to the Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s tariffs function as a consumer tax on food, covering 44% of imports and effectively imposing a 12% tax on imported food. The Joint Economic Committee estimates that American families paid $310 more for groceries in Trump’s first year.
• Trump’s economic agenda favors top earners over workers. New data from Bank of America show that after-tax wage growth remains weakest for lower- and middle-income households, while higher-income earners continue to see stronger gains. Despite White House claims of larger tax refunds, their own data show only negligible increases of less than $100 for taxpayers earning less than $50,000 per year, while those earning more than $200,000 per year will receive a $2,000 windfall. Workers now receive the smallest share of the economic pie since at least 1947, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Under Trump, economic gains are flowing upward rather than to working families.
• Retail spending is losing momentum. Retail sales were flat in December, missing expectations for a 0.4% increase, after rising 0.6% in November. Over the past year, sales rose 2.4%, failing to keep up with December’s 2.7% inflation rate, meaning real spending declined. Categories hit hardest by 2025 tariffs, including autos, furniture, appliances, and clothing, posted monthly declines. While higher-income households continued to spend, lower- and middle-income families pulled back, reflecting growing strain beneath the surface of the economy.
• In Trump’s economy, more families are missing payments. According to the Federal Reserve of New York, consumer delinquencies climbed to 4.8% of household debt in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest level since 2017. The increase is concentrated among low-income and younger borrowers. Mortgage defaults are also rising in lower-income communities. The pressure is greatest in areas facing higher unemployment and declining home values.
  • Data from the Federal Reserve shows that non-revolving credit, including auto and student loans, rose about 2% in December. At the same time, credit-card and other revolving debt jumped 3.4%. This marks the biggest monthly increase in more than two years. The surge points to growing reliance on borrowing as higher prices continue to strain household budgets.
• High housing costs are keeping families out of the market. Existing home sales fell 8.4% last month, the largest monthly decline in nearly four years, according to the National Association of Realtors. Pending home sales dropped 0.8% in January to a record low in data going back to 2001. Buyers continue to cite affordability as a primary obstacle to purchasing a home, and builders have lowered their expectations for future sales as affordability concerns weigh on demand and confidence.

Expert Commentary:

• “This is a K-shaped economy with strong spending from the top and much more cautious spending from middle- and lower-income consumers. Retail sales were flat in December, driven by soft spending on autos, home furnishings, appliances and clothing. These items were hard hit by tariffs in 2025 and consumers shifted their spending elsewhere.” – Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union
• “Builders reduced their expectations for future sales as buyers report affordability challenges, which is contributing to declining consumer confidence for the overall economy. While the majority of builders continue to deploy buyer incentives, including price cuts, many prospective buyers remain on the sidelines. Although demand for new construction has weakened, remodeling demand has remained solid given a lack of household mobility.” – National Association of Home Builders Chairman Buddy Hughes
• “The January employment report included the usual annual revisions that affected the payroll data for all of 2025, which adjusted the picture we have of the labor market going into 2026. As expected, the data were revised down, turning 2025 from a year with relatively weak job creation into one of the weakest years in decades outside of a recession. For the year, 181,000 new jobs were reported. This amounts to an average of only 15,000 a month… Accounting for those upcoming revisions, it seems clear that payroll employment in the United States probably fell in 2025, only the third year that has happened since 1945.” – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller
• “At the State of the Union, President Trump will try to spin a happy story about his failed economic agenda. During his campaign, he promised to lower costs ‘on day one.’ He is now more than 400 days into his second term, and his policies are forcing Americans to pay more for everything from groceries to housing and electricity. Last Friday, the Supreme Court rebuked him for illegally taking money from working families. And polls show the American people think the president is not doing enough to lower costs.” – Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)