“In His First 100 Days, Trump Did All He Could to Engineer a Recession,” says Groundwork’s Owens
“In His First 100 Days, Trump Did All He Could to Engineer a Recession,” says Groundwork’s Owens
Trump oversees fifth straight month of decline in consumer confidence; recession expectations skyrocket
The first months of President Donald Trump’s second term have been marked by chaotic policymaking and instability, which continues to bear out in the economic data. Today, consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed a fifth straight month of decline, the worst since the COVID-19 pandemic, with consumer expectations at a 13-year low.
Additionally, the Expectations Index dropped to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011, and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession. Expectations of inflation over the next year have climbed to 7.0%, the highest since November 2022.
Groundwork Executive Director Lindsay Owens released the following statement:
“Today’s numbers are sobering and signal that we are plunging headfirst into a recession. If this is the level of pain the president is willing to inflict on Americans in just a few short months, it’s no wonder that consumers and businesses are bracing themselves for a long, dark road ahead.
“This is a man-made crisis. In his first 100 days, Trump did all he could to engineer a recession.”
Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about Trump’s economic mismanagement.
BACKGROUND
- Consumer confidence fell by 7.9 points in April to 86.0, reaching its lowest point in 13 years. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index for the future dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, its lowest level since October 2011, and meets the threshold that typically signals an upcoming recession. Expectations about inflation over the next year have climbed to 7.0%, the highest since November 2022.
- Final consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan survey last week showed that economic expectations have fallen 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession.
- President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has plunged to new lows since he took office, while economic indicators continue to show he is pushing the economy toward a recession.
- A Gallup poll last week showed that for the first time in at least 25 years, a majority of Americans (53%) said their personal financial situation was getting worse. This is higher than the Great Recession, the pandemic, and when inflation peaked in the summer of 2022.
- Businesses are similarly experiencing rising uncertainty under Trump. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.3 points to 97.4 in March 2025, marking its lowest level since October 2024, and falling below market expectations, which had forecasted a reading of 101.3.
- The term “recession” was mentioned on 44% of earnings calls in the first quarter of this year. Only 3% of earnings calls mentioned “recession” in the last quarter of 2024.
- Additionally, Trump’s promised manufacturing boom hasn’t just failed to materialize – the sector as a whole is weakening.
- Economic growth is also projected to take a significant hit due to Trump’s policies. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s gold-adjusted GDPNow tracker projects that the economy will shrink by 1.5% in the first quarter of this year.
