This week, both President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to spin recent economic warning signs into good news and mislead the public about the fact that the Trump administration is driving the economy toward a recession.
Today, while testifying before a House Appropriations Subcommittee, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent falsely claimed the U.S. economy shows no signs of a recession, when declining GDP, rising prices, and plummeting consumer sentiment show the opposite.
On NBC News’ “Meet the Press” this weekend, Trump brazenly told Americans that a recession would be “okay.” While Trump and his billionaire donors might make it through unscathed, for working-class Americans, recessions have devastating, long-term scarring effects that can reverberate for generations.
From the state of the economy to the consumer impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, we fact-checked Bessent and Trump’s false claims below:
From Bessent’s testimony:
CLAIM: “I believe in data, and there is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession.”
FACT: The data is showing flashing red signs of a downturn. Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. A decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters is a strong indicator of a recession. Consumer sentiment data showed that economic expectations have fallen 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. Business outlook is in dire straits as well — in March, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for its third consecutive month, and hiring is slowing as businesses face immense economic uncertainty.
CLAIM: “We are moving money into customer service at the IRS.”
FACT: Ten percent of the IRS’ customer service agents have left as a result of DOGE, plus 31% of its auditors — even though auditors are highly efficient and collect $26 for every $1 spent by auditing the top 0.1% of wealthy tax cheats. Further, the Trump Administration is poised to end the popular and efficient Direct File program, which allows taxpayers to file for free, directly with the IRS.
CLAIM: “[The TCJA] provided a substantial, non-inflationary impetus to the economy, which resulted in real wage gains on a non-inflationary basis for the American people and a robust economy.”
FACT: Trump’s 2017 tax law was highly skewed to the rich and benefited high-income households far more than households with low and moderate incomes. Ninety percent of workers did not see a raise as a result of the slashing of the corporate tax rate. In fact, the TCJA gave the richest 0.1% of Americans a tax cut 277 times larger than what teachers, nurses, and other middle-class households received. In its first year alone, the TCJA gave 82 ultra-wealthy households $1 billion in total savings. Meanwhile, over one-third of taxpayers saw no changes in their taxes or faced a tax increase under the law.
From Trump’s interview:
CLAIM: “I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job.”
FACT: Since Trump took office, recession indicators have been flashing red thanks to his damaging economic policies. As a result of his sweeping tariffs:
CLAIM: When asked about rising prices for goods such as strollers, tires, and clothing, “That’s peanuts compared to energy.”
FACT: Large purchases are significant expenses for households and not “peanuts” for parents and expecting parents. Few strollers are made in the U.S., meaning most will be subject to import taxes — and companies are already raising prices. UPPAbaby’s popular Vista stroller just increased from $900 to $1,200. Or, for a cheaper option, Bombi’s flagship stroller now costs $225 instead of $199. Stroller prices are going up, in addition to many other items parents need to buy: car seats, cribs, high chairs, clothes, toys, sippy cups, and more. A full report from Groundwork Collaborative on the baby tax can be found here.
CLAIM: When asked if a short-term recession was okay: “Yeah, everything’s okay. I said, this is a transition period. I think we’re going to do fantastically.”
FACT:. Recessions are not okay and cause widespread economic hardship. A tariffs-induced recession would be uniquely brutal. As Groundwork’s Executive Director Lindsay Owens detailed in a recent Rolling Stone op-ed:
“[F]amilies usually get some relief on prices during a recession, as demand lags. But it is possible we could see sustained high prices, and even shortages, throughout a recession because of his tariffs. This toxic combination — higher unemployment, lower growth, and higher inflation — is called ‘stagflation,’ and it makes the Federal Reserve’s job to manage interest rates and fight the downturn even more difficult… Meanwhile, because Elon Musk has spent the last three months kneecapping the administrative state with his so-called Department of Government Efficiency, Americans who lose their jobs or see reductions in income will have a harder time accessing the crucial safety net programs that they can usually rely on when times are tough.”
Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about President Trump’s economic mismanagement.