Final Jobs Report Before Midterms is Brutal Reality Check for Trump’s Underperforming Economy
Final Jobs Report Before Midterms is Brutal Reality Check for Trump's Underperforming Economy
Few sectors driving job gains, long term unemployment elevated, and wages trail inflation
Today’s jobs report shows the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while July and August growth was revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, with 10,000 jobs lost in July. Unemployment rose to 4.2%.
This jobs report underscored how sluggish the job market is under Trump. Job growth has averaged 68,000 so far in 2026, compared to a monthly average of 122,000 in the last full year before Trump took office. Nearly two years into Trump’s economy, there are fewer manufacturing jobs than when the president took office, workers who lose their jobs are staying unemployed longer, consumer confidence is at a 12-year low, and paychecks aren’t keeping up with prices. Trump’s economy is failing working people.
Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief Economist, Breyon Williams, released the following statement:
“There’s a clear pattern in the Trump economy: one sector is creating most of the new jobs, unemployed workers can’t find new jobs, and Americans are seeing their paychecks eaten up by the president’s high prices. When businesses are barely hiring and raises aren’t keeping up with rising prices, it’s a stalled economy – and working families are stuck in it.”
BACKGROUND
Health care is carrying Trump’s economy.
- Health care added nearly 17,000 jobs in September, accounting for 58% of all jobs added. The sector has accounted for 75% of total job gains over the past year. It’s not so much that hospitals are hiring, but that they’re some of the only places that are.
- Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act puts one of the economy’s main sources of job growth at risk. Medicaid cuts alone could eliminate nearly 1 million jobs by 2029, half of them in health care, according to the Commonwealth Fund.
- Trump’s promised manufacturing boom has yet to materialize.
- Manufacturing has shed 21,000 jobs since Trump took office, despite his promise that tariffs would bring these jobs back. Businesses are also pulling back on new factory investment. Wednesday’s GDP data showed investment in manufacturing structures is down 25.7% over the past year.
Job seekers are facing a tougher labor market.
- Workers who lose a job are having a harder time finding another one. The share of unemployed workers out of work for six months or longer reached 27.1% in September, up from 21.1% when Trump took office. The average length of unemployment is 24.8 weeks, nearly three weeks longer from the start of Trump’s second term.
- More Americans say jobs are becoming difficult to find. This week’s Consumer Confidence Survey found that 21.9% of consumers described jobs as “hard to get” in September, up from 20.3% in August, and consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014.
- Workers are giving up. The labor force participation rate is at 61.8% in September, down from 62.6% when Trump took office.
- Some groups are facing a much weaker labor market than the national average.
- The U-6 rate, which includes people working part time because they cannot find full-time work and workers who have stopped looking, stood at 7.6% in September, a total of 13.1 million workers.
- Young adults are having a particularly hard time finding work, with unemployment among workers ages 20 to 24 at 8% in September, up from 7.1% in August.
- The unemployment rate for Black workers stood at 7% in September, a sizable jump from 6% a month ago.
Paychecks are not keeping up with the cost of living.
- Prices increased 3.4% over the past year in August, compared with 3% wage growth over the past year in September. Average hourly earnings increased by just 5 cents, or 0.1%, in September.
