Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February shows prices rose 2.4% over the past year, with core inflation at 2.5%, both still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This report vastly understates the current picture facing American families, as most data was collected before Trump’s war on Iran. Average gas prices are up $0.51 in just the last week, with prices at the pump forecasted to hit $4 per gallon next month. Over the past year, the price of groceries, electricity, housing, and health care have continued to rise, and President Trump continues to push forward a misguided agenda that makes it harder for working families to make ends meet at every turn.
Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:
“Unfortunately, we already know the worst is yet to come. Today’s report, which is already well above the Fed’s 2% target, does not capture the price shock families are already facing after Trump launched his war with Iran. Far from lowering prices on day one, Trump’s reckless tariffs and illegal war with Iran are pouring gasoline on the inflation fire and pushing everyday costs even higher for working families.”
BACKGROUND
Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline CPI came in at 2.4% year over year in February, same as January’s 2.4% reading. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, registered 2.5% year over year, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. February’s reading is also understated due to data gaps from the October 2025 government shutdown that led to an undercount of housing price increases, an effect that will persist until April.
Grocery prices continue to hit families where it hurts most. In just the past month, fresh produce prices soared, with lettuce up 12.2% and tomatoes up 6.4%. Over the past year, Trump’s tariffs have driven the price of coffee up by more than 18%. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the president’s war on Iran is rocking global fertilizer supply chains, which will only add to the pain felt by farmers and families.
Prices for goods impacted by tariffs are up. Items that are mostly imported, and thus most affected by Trump’s tariffs, have increased well above headline inflation: Photography equipment rose by 10.7% over the past year, and furniture and bedding prices are up 4.2%, while men’s suits and women’s dresses rose by more than 4% in the last month alone. Trump continues to press forward with his chaotic tariff agenda that is hiking prices for American families. Following the Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s illegal emergency tariffs, the administration swiftly moved to impose 10% tariffs on global imports under other authorities, which they are set to increase to 15% imminently.
Trump’s war with Iran is pouring gasoline on the inflation fire. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since July 2022, up more than 80% this year. Higher oil pushes up gasoline, diesel, and natural gas prices, raising prices for transportation, travel, heating, and electricity. United Airlines CEO warned that higher jet fuel costs will soon increase airfares. Trump’s war has disrupted global fertilizer supplies, driving up the costs for farmers and the price of food. Global shipping and air cargo disruptions are raising costs for electronics, medicine, and other everyday goods.