Today’s Plunging Consumer Sentiment Numbers Might Be the High-Water Mark, Says Groundwork’s Owens

Consumer Sentiment Continues Free Fall – Dropping 11%

Trump Willing to Trigger Recession – WSJ

President Trump’s tariff chaos continued to rattle markets this week, despite a 90-day pause on most of the previously-announced reciprocal tariffs. Reporting from the Wall Street Journal revealed that the president told advisors he was willing to cause significant economic pain for millions of families, but backed off over fears he’d create a “depression.”

Today, new data from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed that Americans are panicking about the state of the economy and their financial futures. Consumer sentiment declined another 11% from March, falling even further than expectations.

Groundwork Collaborative Executive Director Lindsay Owens reacted with the following statement:

“The scariest part of today’s plunging consumer sentiment numbers is that we might be looking at the high-water mark. The president’s reckless trade policies have roiled markets, shattered retirement accounts, and halted shipping orders. We could be looking at price spikes, shortages, and even a recession in the weeks and months to come.

“Worst of all, while consumers are bracing for impact, Congress is gutting the safety net they’ll need to rely on if the economic devastation continues. President Trump isn’t executing an economic agenda, he’s piloting a kamikaze mission.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about President Trump’s handling of the economy.

THIS WEEK IN THE TRUMP SLUMP

Economic Data and Analysis

• Consumer sentiment declined another 11% from March, falling even further than market expectations. Year-ahead inflation expectations are at their highest level since 1981. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead is at the highest level since 2009.

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.3 points to 97.4 in March 2025, marking its lowest level since October 2024 – just before the election.

• Additionally, the percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020.

• The net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 11 points from February to a net 3%.

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that the economy shrunk by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year despite growing consistently for the past few years.

• The average effective tariff rate is at its highest level since 1909. Yale Budget Lab estimates that even with the 90-day pause, the universal 10% tariff and the 145% tariff on China will cost the average household $4,700 in the short-term. Households at the bottom of the income distribution will lose out on $2,100.

Polling

• Polling from The Economist and YouGov found that only 41% of Americans approve of the president’s handling of the economy. Trump’s net approval on the economy from his own 2024 voters has fallen as well.
  • In regard to his handling of prices and inflation, 55% disapprove of Trump’s handling, with only 36% of Americans approving of his efforts thus far.
• Polling from Quinnipiac University found that 72% of voters think that Trump’s tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy in the short term, while just 22% think the tariffs will help it.

• According to the latest Navigator Research poll, Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 44 percent, while 53 percent disapprove, giving him a net approval of -9 points.

Expert Commentary

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC today, “I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now.”

• Following the reciprocal tariff pause, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi tweeted, “It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%.”

• Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen weighed in and dubbed Trump’s tariffs “the worst self-inflicted wound that I have ever seen … imposed on a well-functioning economy.” She added that the odds of a recession have “meaningfully risen.”

• Groundwork Collaborative Executive Director Lindsay Owens said on MSNBC: “The amount of risk the president is asking Americans to bear right now is unacceptable. It’s why the markets are in free-fall, it’s why his numbers are underwater. We can all just hope that this gets resolved sooner than later.”
• Groundwork Collaborative Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez joined the What A Day podcast to talk about the pain increased tariffs on China will cause Americans: “Immediately, this is going to cause pain across the economy, especially for small businesses, for small manufacturers, and of course, for consumers that you know get things imported from China.”