Consumer Confidence Report Points to Trump Recession, Says Jacquez

Expectations Index below level indicating upcoming recession; Trump oversees worst four-month fall since 2011

Today, consumer confidence data from the Conference Board posted another sharp decrease, falling even further than expected. This follows February’s drop, which was the largest since August 2021. The Expectations Index for the future is at its lowest level in 12 years and meets the threshold that typically signals an upcoming recession. Consumer confidence is now at its lowest level since early 2021.

Groundwork Collaborative Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:

“Consumer confidence in Trump’s economy continues to plummet at an alarming rate. Families are looking for stability. But with the chaotic trade wars the president threatens to unleash and his destruction of the Social Security Administration and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that serve and protect seniors and consumers, Americans are finding none.

“Instead of lowering the cost of living or investing in programs like Medicaid that millions of Americans rely on, the Trump Administration and its allies in Congress are ignoring working families and zeroing in on another round of tax giveaways to their billionaire donors and large corporations. The lack of confidence is understandable.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about President Trump’s handling of the economy.

BACKGROUND

• The manufacturing boom is looking more like the opposite. The S&P Global flash March factory index entered contract territory, coming in at 49.8. Figures below 50 indicate contraction. Sentiment about prospects over the coming year fell to the second-lowest level since 2022.
• The Fed predicts 1.7% GDP growth this year, down from 2.1% previously projected in December. Officials also expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% and inflation to edge up to 2.7% by year’s end, indicating a quickly-deteriorating economy under Trump’s mismanagement.
• Retail sales only rose 0.2% last month, falling short of expectations. Retail sales for bars and restaurants are falling – posting the largest decline since February 2023, indicating that consumers are pulling back from non-essential spending.
• 67% of people surveyed by Global Strategy Group believe that it’s “likely” or “somewhat likely” that the U.S. economy enters a recession in the next year.
• In a Harris poll, 72% of Americans are worried about President Trump’s tariffs – and 66% worry that it will take years to recover from the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
• Wall Street fund managers, strategists, and analysts surveyed by CNBC raised their recession risk to the highest level in 6 months – 36%, up from 23%. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics said, “Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing.” Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research said, “There is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP.”