An Economy on Ice as Americans Prepare for a Health Care Price Fright

An Economy on Ice as Americans Prepare for a Health Care Price Fright

The U.S. economy is on ice, and instead of offering solutions, Republicans are sending a clear message that they’d rather shut down the government than tackle the rising costs of living and shrinking opportunities hurting everyday Americans. Real people are speaking out as over 20 million Americans brace for a sharp spike in health insurance costs for 2026—up to $300 more per month—when open enrollment begins on November 1st. New polling confirms these fears: 75% of American voters—including 69% of Republicans—are very or somewhat concerned about rising health care prices.

While the government shutdown delays the release of September’s official jobs report, other key indicators paint a troubling economic picture. S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) fell to 52.0 last month, signaling that U.S. factories are losing steam, with growth cooling and demand softening. At the same time, employers reported the weakest September hiring plans in over a decade as Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports companies are dialing back seasonal job additions and signaling less confidence in the outlook. Consumer confidence is also slipping, dropping to its lowest level since April 2025, as fears of a recession continue to loom.

Chief of Policy and Advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative Alex Jacquez, shared his reaction:

“With a stalled job market, sinking consumer confidence, and rising health insurance prices, President Trump is doubling down on his threat to inflict maximum pain on American families. Instead of offering relief or real solutions, the president and congressional Republicans are playing political games while millions of Americans are left to pay the price.”

This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America’s workers.

Polling and Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:

• The job market remains frozen. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that U.S. job openings were at 7.2 million in August, unchanged from the previous month.  Economists are pointing to Trump’s tariffs on imports, crackdown on immigration, and federal workforce cuts as key factors behind the hiring slump.
  • Employers announced plans to add 71% fewer jobs from a year earlier, marking the weakest September for hiring intentions since 2011. Year-to-date, hiring plans total just 205,000, the slowest pace since 2009, underscoring how few new opportunities are coming online even as job seekers face higher costs. At the same time, companies announced fewer job cuts, suggesting employers are simply pulling back on hiring without expanding their workforce, a sign of a labor market losing momentum on both sides.
• The industrial side of the economy is just as bad. For the seventh month in a row, the ISM manufacturing index, a sign of future sales, fell back into negative territory. The index inched up to 49.1% in September from 48.7% the previous month, but any number below 50% signals contraction.
  • Employment has fallen for eight consecutive months, with just one of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM seeing job growth in September. Meanwhile, prices for raw materials and supplies have climbed for the 12th straight month, driven by rising costs for steel and other key commodities.
• President Trump’s threat to “extract maximum pain” from the American people isn’t sitting well with voters. His recent announcement threatening mass firings of federal workers if the government shuts down is overwhelmingly opposed: 61% of voters are against it — including two-thirds of Independents.
• Consumer confidence fell to a 5 month low. Consumer confidence tumbled in September, with the index falling 3.6 points to 94.2. That’s not only a bigger decline than analysts were expecting but also the lowest reading since April, when President Trump first rolled out his sweeping tariff policy.
  • Short-term expectations for income, business conditions, and the job market dropped to 73.4, well below the 80 threshold often seen as a red flag for a looming recession.
• Americans are also feeling worse about the economy right now: assessments of current conditions slid by 7 points to 125.4, signaling growing unease about household finances and job stability.
  • Inflation is once again front and center. Mentions of high prices spiked in September, reclaiming the top spot as consumers’ biggest concern about the economy.

Additional Indicators:

• 69% of Americans say tariffs have already driven up costs—and half believe the worst is still ahead. 54% of battleground constituents point to President Trump’s policies as the reason, according to a new poll from Navigator Research.
  • The strain is felt most at the grocery store: 87% say the increase in the price of groceries has hit their budgets the hardest, followed by 59% who say the same of utilities like gas and electricity, and 35% who cite the cost of health insurance.
• Most voters are feeling pain from rising electricity prices. 57% of Americans say rising electricity prices have had at least a decent impact on their household finances, according to a Heatmap Pro Poll.
• Nearly half (47%) of Americans say it’s harder to afford their groceries now than it was a year ago, in the latest Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll. Trump’s tariffs have led to increased food prices, which disproportionately impact working-class voters.

Expert Commentary:

• Lindsay Owens, Executive Director at Groundwork Collaborative, shared her reaction to the government shutdown: “Republicans in Congress just sent a message to the American people that they would rather shut down the government than lower your health care costs. Each day that the government is shut down and Republicans refuse to negotiate brings more than 20 million people closer to seeing their insurance premiums spike on November 1 and puts millions more at risk of losing Medicaid coverage.
• Chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union Heather Long responded to the latest JOLTS numbers: “That’s the worst level since the Great Recession era, when unemployment was 7% or higher, with the exception of April 2020. The job market has been frozen for close to a year now, and it appears to be getting worse for job seekers. Americans feel stuck in this economy without job opportunities or hopes of buying a home. This needs to change.”
• Former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Rohit Chopra spoke about the economic impact of the government shutdown: “We have really two big issues here. One, is all of the employees, all of the services that will get stopped, that will sure have an impact on the economy. But the big question is, what is going to happen in our healthcare premiums? This fight really is about whether those premiums are going to surge. And this matters a lot to employers, who if they face much higher health care costs, they may need to lay off employees. So I see this as a very big moment for the economy, and frankly, people’s health care options.”
• A Transportation-equipment executive was asked in the ISM survey about how their business is doing: ‘We believe we are in a stagflation period where prices are up but orders are down due to tariff policy, and … customers are not willing to pay the higher prices, so they are just not buying.’
• A survey respondent of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey revealed how Trump’s economy is affecting their business: “I may have to close the company. Orders have stopped coming in, and we do not know why.”