Americans Send a Message on Affordability as Confidence Hits New Lows

Americans Send a Message on Affordability as Confidence Hits New Lows

President Trump promised to lower costs on day one. Ten months into his second term, his administration now says America’s affordability crisis is a 2026 problem. Meanwhile, everyday Americans are being laid off in record numbers – surging past one million this year –  and credit card debt is crushing households. New data further underscores how American consumers feel about Trump’s economy as he kicks the can down the road on the highest priority for families.

Today, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index preliminary data indicated that sentiment fell to 50.3 in November, down from 53.6 in October and nearly three points below expectation, marking another setback for household confidence as sentiment reaches the lowest level in three years.

Chief of Policy and Advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, Alex Jacquez, shared his reaction:

“Americans are losing faith in the economy because they’re losing ground. Every day it becomes clearer that President Trump has no real interest in improving the lives of American families. His economic mismanagement has left households buried under record debt and rising prices. It’s no surprise consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since 2022 and households are turning to leaders who didn’t just learn the word ‘affordability.’”

This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America’s workers.

Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:

• Consumer sentiment has fallen to a three-year low: The University of Michigan’s preliminary data showed that consumer confidence reached 50.3 in November, approaching historically low levels.
• Inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-ahead inflation expectations increased as consumers have little hope that prices will come down in Trump’s economy.
  • The Federal Reserve has noted that tariffs are driving goods prices higher and that inflation away from tariffs is still above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing that price relief remains limited.
• Layoffs surge to a two-decade high. U.S. employers announced 153,000 job cuts in October — the worst October in 20 years and the largest fourth-quarter total since the Great Recession, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
  • Layoffs are up 175% from a year ago and 183% from last month, with 1.1 million jobs cut so far in 2025, the most since 2020. Nearly every industry is reducing headcount.
• Sentiment dropped for most, spared the wealthy. Sentiment fell across nearly all demographics this month—age, income, and political leaning alike—except for consumers with the largest stock holdings, whose sentiment jumped 11%.
  • Multiple companies have reported in corporate earning calls that low-income consumers are struggling, buying less, and shifting to lower cost products while those at the top are spending more — a dynamic that Fed Chair Powell acknowledged in his most recent press conference.
• Delinquencies are climbing. Credit card serious delinquencies are now around levels last seen in 2010. Student loan delinquencies rose to nearly 10% in the third quarter, up from 8% in the first quarter, as borrowers struggle to keep up with student loan payments following the Trump administration’s rollback of many Biden-era repayment options.
• Credit stress is spreading. Bankcard 60+ day delinquencies near 3% and mortgage 90+ day delinquencies are rising, according to Equifax data. Home equity borrowing and utilization are climbing as families tap home equity to stay afloat.
• Electricity bills are rising. Annual electricity costs for the average American household are increasing by approximately $100 this year. The Joint Economic Committee found that electric bills have increased in nearly every state, with consumers paying up to 15% more in some states.
• Small businesses are losing ground. While not an official government measure, private payroll data from ADP indicate they’ve cut nearly 88,000 jobs over the past three months as Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty weigh heavily on hiring.
  • Similarly, net hiring turned negative (-5,900 jobs) among firms with fewer than 50 employees in the Gusto October Small Business Jobs Report — the weakest month since early 2023.

Polling:

• Americans say they’re spending more under Trump. Seventy-one percent of adults say their grocery costs have risen in the past year, while 59% say the same of their utility costs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
  • Additionally, roughly 6 in 10 Americans blame Trump for rising prices and the current rate of inflation.
• Trump’s economic approval hits new lows. The same poll found that only 37% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 62% disapprove. Similarly, 65% of Americans disapprove of his handling of tariffs.
  • 59% of Americans disapprove of the job Trump is doing overall — Trump’s highest job disapproval since immediately after the January 6 attack.
• Voters are losing faith in Trump and Republicans’ handling of the economy. A new NBC News poll finds that voters are nearly split on which party would better handle the economy — 38% say Republicans, 37% say Democrats. In 2023, Republicans had a 21-point edge on this question.
  • Large majorities say Trump has fallen short of expectations on cost of living (66%), looking out for the middle class (65%), and the overall economy (63%).
  • A new Pew Research Center survey found similar results: 38% of Americans agree with the Republican Party on economic policy and 35% agree with Democrats. Just two years ago, the Republican Party had a 12-point advantage over the Democratic Party on economic policy.
• Americans do not trust Republicans on health care. Democrats now have a 23-point lead over Republicans on handling health care, their highest mark on the issue since July 2008, according to an NBC News poll.
• Americans support policies that address rising health care costs. In a KFF poll, About three in four (74%) U.S. adults say Congress should extend the enhanced tax credits and a majority of Democrats (81%) and Independents (51%) say Democratic leaders should refuse to approve a budget without the tax credit extensions.

Additional Indicators:

• America’s factories are slowing down. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 48.7 in October, down from 49.1 in September. The sector has now contracted for eight consecutive months, underscoring continued weakness in America’s industrial base under Trump’s economic policies.
• The service industry is struggling with price pressures. The ISM Services Prices Index — a measure of how much prices are changing for goods and services purchased by U.S. service-sector companies — rose to 70% in October, the highest since 2022, pointing to renewed inflation pressure in the service economy.
• First-time homebuyers are aging out of the market. The share of first-time buyers fell to a record low of just 21%, while the median age hit an all-time high of 40, according to the National Association of Realtors. The data highlights how rising prices and limited inventory are locking an entire generation out of homeownership.
  • The median down payment among first-time buyers climbed to 10%, matching the highest level since 1989.
• Restaurant activity is cooling. OpenTable data show sharp slowdowns in seated diners in late October after steady summer gains — a sign that households are cutting back on dining out as confidence erodes.

Expert Commentary:

• Executive Director at Groundwork Collaborative Lindsay Owens spoke to MSNBC’s Ali Vitali on Way Too Early about the government shutdown and rising health care costs: “Every day, millions of Americans in this country are waking up and finding out that their health care premiums are gonna spike, not just $5 or $10, some of these health care premiums are gonna double, go up as much as 600%. So the crux of the shutdown, and voters made this clear on Tuesday, is they want Democrats to ensure that they get a deal to prevent these premium price spikes, and that’s really what’s at issue here. It’s not the filibuster. It’s not air travel. It’s whether Americans are gonna be able to afford health care next year.”
• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook discussed the growing economic divide in our country in a recent speech: “Among low-to-middle-income (LMI) households, we have observed large increases in delinquencies, especially last year, and there is some evidence that their spending has stagnated, in particular compared to the robust spending growth of their higher-income counterparts. This is sometimes called a “two-speed” economy, when the well-off are doing well, while LMI and vulnerable households are not.”
• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she believes tariffs will likely result in lasting inflation: “The tariff changes have been large, dynamic, and ongoing — far from a textbook implementation,” Hammack said. “Based on all of these considerations, I don’t see elevated inflation as a purely transitory phenomenon that I should look through.” She added that she remains “concerned about high inflation and believes policy should be leaning against it.”
• Learning Resources CEO Rick Woldenberg, who is challenging the Trump administration’s tariffs before the Supreme Court, described how the policy has hurt his businesses: “Our expense on tariffs in 2024 was zero. Our expected cash expense this year will be $14 million. And I expect that the cost next year will double or more. We’re behaving the way someone would behave if they had a sudden and irreversible expense of $14 million. We’re hiring fewer people. We’re developing fewer products. It’s bad for business.”
• National Association of Realtors Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Jessica Lautz highlighted the divide in today’s housing market: “Unfolding in the housing market is a tale of two cities. We’re seeing buyers with significant housing equity making larger down payments and all-cash offers, while first-time buyers continue to struggle to enter the market.”
• An executive at a machinery company participating in the ISM Manufacturing Survey said tariffs are taking a serious toll on their business: “Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.”