September’s Job Numbers Mask a Weakening Economy
September’s Job Numbers Mask a Weakening Economy
The delayed September jobs report shows the United States added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The labor market is effectively stalled as of April’s Liberation Day, as Trump’s tariffs and economic mismanagement squeeze businesses and workers alike. Despite months old data, the story of Trump’s economy remains the same: economic conditions are not getting better for working families.
Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez released the following statement:
“Today’s delayed report shows troubling signs below the topline number: the underlying labor market remains weak, leaving working Americans with shrinking opportunities and rising insecurity. Month after month, the Trump economy is producing fewer jobs, more instability, and fewer pathways for families trying to get ahead.”
Even in this delayed September report, warning signs stand out clearly:
- Health care carries much of September’s job growth. Non-tradeable service sectors continue to drive nearly all job growth, while manufacturing and transportation and warehousing lost jobs.
- July and August jobs gains were revised down. Jobs numbers were revised down by 7,000 in July and by 26,000 in August for a combined downward revision of 33,000, including job loss of 4,000 in August.
- More people are out of work than a year ago. The number of unemployed is up 700,000 from last year and the share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more has grown since last year, leaving more people stuck without stable employment.
Because October’s report is delayed, policymakers are flying blind when it comes to current labor market conditions. However, the ancillary indicators we do have suggest little improvement — and potentially, worsening:
- Hiring slowed broadly across major industries. LinkedIn data show year-over-year hiring declines in October across most sectors as employers pull back on recruiting, according to LinkedIn.
- Seasonal retail hiring has sharply slowed, with postings down 16% year-over-year in October and major retailers publicly keeping silent on their hiring plans — underscoring that fewer jobs are available even as demand for workers rises, according to the Indeed Hiring Lab.
- Private-sector job growth remains weak even in the latest data. ADP reported a weak job gain of 42,000 in October following a 32,000 job loss in September, indicating a labor market still struggling to regain momentum, according to ADP.
- Small-business hiring has deteriorated for months. Gusto shows steady declines in small-business net hiring from July through October, and Paychex’s small-business employment index has remained below 100 since May — both signaling ongoing job losses among the employers most sensitive to economic shifts.
- Layoffs surged heading into the fall. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,000 job cuts in October, one of the highest October totals in decades and a clear signal that employers are pulling back, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
