Small Businesses Bracing for the Worst as Trump Upends the Economy, Says Groundwork’s Owens

Small Businesses Bracing for the Worst as Trump Upends the Economy, Says Groundwork’s Owens

As shockwaves from President Trump’s chaotic trade policies continue to roil financial markets, small businesses are growing increasingly pessimistic. Small business optimism dropped 3.3 points to 97.4 in March, marking its lowest level since October 2024, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index. The percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020.

Groundwork Collaborative’s Executive Director Lindsay Owens reacted with the following statement:

“We’ve seen the economic chaos Trump has unleashed on Wall Street, and now we have confirmation that the president is setting fire to Main Street as well. With small business uncertainty and pessimism this high, businesses will stop investing, halt hiring, and even begin layoffs. These destructive policies are bad for small  businesses and even worse for the communities they support.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about President Trump’s stewardship of the economy and tariffs.

BACKGROUND

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.3 points to 97.4 in March 2025, marking its lowest level since October 2024, and falling below market expectations, which had forecasted a reading of 101.3.
• Additionally, the percentage of owners anticipating better business conditions dropped 16 points to a net 21%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since December 2020.
• Small businesses contributed 55% of the total net job creation from 2013 to 2023. In 2021, small businesses employed 56.4 million people and accounted for nearly half of private sector employment.
• In CNBC’s survey of CEOs, one business leader said, “Without faith that our government knows what it is doing, it is impossible for businesses to thrive.” 69% of CEOs surveyed now expect a recession.