Trump Singlehandedly Wiped Out Americans’ Retirement Savings Overnight, Says Groundwork’s Owens

Analysts hike recession odds; Trump’s tariffs dubbed “biggest policy mistake in 95 years”

Today, President Trump’s chaos economy saw markets continue their death spiral, with major indices – the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ – all falling after yesterday, marking their worst single day since June 2020. Groundwork Collaborative Executive Director Lindsay Owens reacted with the following statement:

“Trump has officially brought the economy to its knees. The president singlehandedly wiped out Americans’ retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty. To call this an economic downturn is an understatement; Trump is marching us straight into a depression.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about President Trump’s handling of the economy.

THIS WEEK IN THE TRUMP SLUMP

Tariff Turmoil 

• Trump’s tariff announcement tanked the stock market. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 1,000 points, and the S&P 500 opened down 2.5%. This builds on Thursday’s losses, where the S&P 500 dropped 4.8%, the Dow fell 4%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6%. Stocks had their worst day since the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020.
• Contrary to his claims, President Trump’s erratic approach to trade won’t revitalize American manufacturing or create American jobs.
  • The latest Manufacturing Institute for Supply Management Report on Business showed slowing activity, slowing hiring, slowing sales, and rising prices. Across various industries, manufacturers are pointing the finger at President Trump’s erratic economic actions for the issues they’re facing.
  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI had the weakest expansion of the year so far. Additionally, input price inflation rose to its highest level in over two-and-a-half years. Sentiment about prospects over the coming year fell to the second-lowest level since 2022.

• In spite of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s assertion that employment will start “leaping today,” tariff-related layoffs are already impacting workers.
  • Stellantins has temporarily laid off 900 US employees across five different plants after the announcement of tariffs.

• Financial services firm Wedbush Securities said Thursday that Trump’s sweeping tariffs will throw the U.S. into a recession and cause stagflation.

Economic Data

• Trump’s economy is quickly deteriorating, and Liberation Day will only add headwinds to the labor market. The latest JOLTS report shows a jump in total layoffs, increasing to 1.79 million, up from 1.67 million in January, including thousands of federal workers who were laid off by Elon Musk’s DOGE project.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects that the economy will shrink 0.8% in the first quarter of this year after years of strong growth.
• The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey from the Dallas Fed found general business activity at its lowest level in eight months. Businesses in Texas blamed “radical and erratic changes in U.S. government policies,” warning, “this will not be an easy transition.”
• CEOs across industries are concerned with Trump’s economic agenda. According to the latest “What CEOs Talked About” report, mentions of the keyword “tariff” during earnings calls jumped 190%, while mentions of “uncertainty” climbed 49%, and hiring freeze mentions skyrocketed 286%.

Polling

• Only 37% of respondents in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. A mere 30% approve of his work to address the high cost of living, and 27% approve of his handling of international trade. 57% believe Trump’s economic policies are “too erratic.”

• New polling from CBS News reveals a striking shift in how Americans view President Trump’s handling of the economy. In January, 42% of Americans believed the president’s policies would make them better off financially. Now, just over two months into his second term, that number has flipped – 42% believe he’s making them worse off.

• New polling from AP-NORC found that 58% of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the economy. 70% describe the economy as “poor.”

Expert Commentary

• Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Wisdom Tree chief economist, labeled President Trump’s tariffs “the biggest policy mistake in 95 years.”

• Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi has raised his odds for a recession this year to 40%, after putting the odds at only 15% in January. This follows a swath of worrying economic data, including worsening consumer confidence, weaker consumer spending, and sticky inflation.
• Investment firm Goldman Sachs has hiked its 12-month recession odds to 35%, up from 20% earlier this year, and has slashed their S&P 500 target, and HSBC has pegged the probability of a recession this year at 40%.
• JPMorgan believes a recession is more likely than not, having raised its recession risk forecast to 60% following the tariff announcement. Their researchers predict that U.S. gross domestic product will slide by about 2 percentage points, while global GDP will decrease by 1 point.