Consumers Increasingly Dour as Trump Price Hikes Gobble Up Thanksgiving Budgets

Consumers Increasingly Dour as Trump Price Hikes Gobble Up Thanksgiving Budgets

Instead of preparing to loosen their belts after a hearty Thanksgiving dinner, Americans are tightening theirs and serving up smaller portions as Trump’s economic mismanagement sours the holiday season. New analysis from Groundwork Collaborative, The Century Foundation and AFT shows that a typical Thanksgiving dinner will cost Americans 10% more this year — more than triple the rate of inflation — with the prices of some popular season staples up nearly 60% from last year.

Heading into the holiday, consumers are feeling the pinch — and they know who to blame. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its second-lowest reading on record. The Current Economic Conditions Index, which measures consumers’ optimism about the economy and their personal finances, reached the lowest level on record. Meanwhile, a new Data for Progress poll finds that 53% of voters say a typical Thanksgiving meal is harder to afford this year than last, and a majority point to President Trump’s economic agenda as the culprit.

As soaring prices gobble up paychecks for those fortunate enough to have a job, the September jobs data, released nearly two months late, showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% — its highest level since 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, proving that the U.S. labor market is effectively stalled.

Liz Pancotti, Groundwork’s Managing Director of Policy and Advocacy, shared her reaction:

“This Thanksgiving, Americans can thank President Trump for higher prices. From Turkey Day fixings to health care and utility bills, Trump’s misguided economic agenda is driving up prices and squeezing families from all sides.”

This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular, dragging down the economy, and continuing to hurt American families and workers.

Polling and Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:

• Consumer Sentiment reaches record-low levels. The University of Michigan’s final Consumer Sentiment index fell to 51.0 in November from 53.6, marking the second-lowest reading on record, while the Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 51.1, the lowest ever recorded.
  • This unprecedented level of pessimism is a direct consequence of Trump’s economic mismanagement, as consumers struggle with soaring prices and a tough job market.
• Families are struggling just to keep the lights and heat on. In the first six months of President Trump’s second term, roughly 117,000 more households fell into severely overdue utility debt, a 3.8% increase, according to new analysis from The Century Foundation, as rising utility prices leave families struggling to pay their bills.
• Putting food on the table continues to get more expensive for American families. The average monthly price of groceries in the U.S. for a family of four has increased to $1,030, up from about $800 just five years ago.
  • Not even Turkey Day is spared from Trump’s price hikes. The price of a typical Thanksgiving dinner is up nearly 10% this year, with some staples such as onions rising nearly 60% according to a new analysis from Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation.
    • New Data for Progress polling shows that nearly two-thirds of people are stressed about Thanksgiving prices, with 37% saying they plan to buy fewer items and one-quarter saying they are planning smaller gatherings to afford the holiday.
• The jobs market continues to show troubling signs. The delayed September jobs report showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, while adding 119,000 jobs, mostly concentrated in the health care sector. The labor market has been essentially stagnant since April.
  • Health care and hospitality have accounted for 100% of job growth this year, a trend that is particularly worrisome, as Trump’s Medicaid cuts will lead to significant  job losses in health care and plummeting consumer sentiment will lead Americans to pull back on discretionary purchases like travel, restaurants, and entertainment
  • Trump’s tariffs continue to drive job losses in non-tradeable industries, with the manufacturing sector shedding 58,000 jobs since Liberation Day as construction of factories has inched down to the lowest levels in nearly two years.
• Layoffs keep mounting. Last month, nearly 40,000 Americans across 21 states received Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices, warning of upcoming layoffs. This is one of the highest monthly totals since the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland began tracking WARN notices in 2006, surpassed only by the peaks during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
  • Verizon recently announced the layoffs affecting more than 13,000 employees, the largest-ever round of job cuts for the company.
• Workers are being pushed into tough, low-paying jobs. As the job market stalls, Americans are now being forced to accept historically less desirable jobs. For example, materials-recycling jobs are seeing 50% more applicants per opening and corrections industry job applications in Georgia are up 40% year over year.
• Hiring slowed broadly across major industries. LinkedIn data show year-over-year hiring declined by 5.8% in October across most sectors as employers pull back on recruiting, according to LinkedIn.
  • Seasonal retail hiring has sharply slowed, with postings down 16% year-over-year in October and major retailers publicly keeping silent on their hiring plans — underscoring that fewer jobs are available even as demand for workers rises, according to the Indeed Hiring Lab.
• There is no relief in sight for the housing market. The Home Builder Confidence index remained essentially flat this November at 38, while the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51, with the National Association of Home Builders Chairman Buddy Hughes pointing out that “many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation.”
  • As home buyers struggle in this economy, mortgage applications declined 5.2% this week, way below expectations of a 0.6% increase, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • While no official housing starts data has been released since the onset of the government shutdown, John Burns Research and Consulting estimates an 8% decline in single-family houses that started construction over the past year, further evidence that the gap in housing supply won’t be closed any time soon.
• Trump’s approval on the economy continues to take a deep dive: According to a Reuters/Ipsols poll, Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 38%, marking the lowest point since his return to office. Only 26% of Americans say Trump is doing a good job at managing the cost of living, down from 29% earlier this month. Additionally, one-third of Republicans disapprove of his performance on cost-of-living issues.
  • Trump’s economic mismanagement is leading to a loss of support among key constituencies. Nineteen percent of Latino Trump supporters are disappointed or regretful about voting for him, and among these voters, 75% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living while 68% report being affected by Trump’s tariffs by cutting back on groceries, delaying purchases, using savings, or going into debt.
  • According to recent Blue Rose research comparing current polling levels relative to the 2024 election, Democrats have made health care more important to voters and increased trust in them on that issue, while also gaining more trust on the economy and cost of living.
  • Despite Trump claiming otherwise, voters know that prices have gone up under his presidency. Voters say costs have increased for utilities (78%), health care (67%), housing (66%), and gasoline (54%), while 85% say their grocery prices went up this year, including 60% who say costs increased a lot, according to a recent Fox News poll.
    • In the same poll, voters say by a 31-point margin that Trump’s economic policies have hurt rather than helped them.

Expert Commentary:

• “Families need electricity. That’s why utilities often rank right behind home and auto loans when it comes to which bills families must pay first. Since 2022, the average overdue balance on utility bills climbed 32%, to nearly $800 today.” The Century Foundation President Julie Margetta Morgan on Marketplace.
• “If you build data centers, or provide energy, or sell to higher-income customers, or trade on Wall Street, or build pharmaceutical plants, or live in the Carolinas, your economy is hot. But if you’re a farmer, or a realtor, or a manufacturer hurt by tariffs, or are dependent on lower-income consumers, you are struggling.” Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin in a speech this week.
• “Deteriorating consumer sentiment was widespread among different demographic groups, with the exception of those who own stocks. While the booming stock market is supporting spending by a narrow band of well-off consumers, it does not reflect financial conditions for most Americans, and that is a vulnerability for the economy. The rise in the stock market is substantially driven by artificial intelligence (AI)–related businesses that only account for a small share of employment[…] While I believe AI will create jobs in the medium term, the AI boom on Wall Street isn’t doing so yet.” Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller in a speech this week.
• “But when we look by low-income cohort versus middle versus higher income, we have seen some moderation in spending in the low-income cohort, and that’s consistent with things you’ve seen from a macro perspective. In October, wage growth, the disparity in wage growth between those cohorts was as large as it’s been in almost a decade.” John Rainey, Walmart’s Executive VP & CFO in a recent earning call. 
• Home Depot cut its full-year earnings guidance, as Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail cited low consumer demand and overall weaknesses in the housing market as the main reasons: “We had expected demand to begin accelerating gradually in the back half of the year as interest and mortgage rates eased. But what we see is ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing disproportionately impacting home improvement demand”.
• Target’s Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer Richard Gomez noted consumers are stretching budgets in a recent earnings call: “Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value. They’re spending where it matters most, especially in food, essentials, and beauty, while looking for trend-right deals in discretionary categories […] As we approach the holidays, we know consumers remain cautious. Sentiment is at a three-year low amid concerns about jobs, affordability, and tariffs. Yet they remain emotionally motivated. They want to celebrate with loved ones without overspending.”