Confidence Falls, Prices Rise as Millions Confront a Trump-Imposed Health and Hunger Crisis

Confidence Falls, Prices Rise as Millions Confront a Trump-Imposed Health and Hunger Crisis

It may be Halloween, but families have been feeling relentless price frights since Inauguration Day. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and President Trump’s tariffs continue to drive up the prices of everyday essentials even further. Even the candy aisle isn’t safe, as stocking up for trick-or-treaters will run consumers nearly 11% more this spooky season.

While the cobwebs and jack-o’-lanterns will come down tomorrow morning, families will still be haunted by high prices. Health insurance premiums are set to spike as much as 600% tomorrow as open enrollment begins for millions of Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act, while premiums for employer-based plans will face the steepest increase in 15 years. As if that isn’t scary enough, millions of families face a food emergency starting this weekend as the Trump administration refuses to release emergency funding for food assistance (SNAP) benefits.

All while the President gallivants across the world and Republicans in Congress refuse to lift a finger to bring down health care prices for millions of Americans. It’s no surprise that consumer confidence continues to sink. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell again in October to 94.6, marking its third straight monthly drop.

Alex Jacquez, Chief of Policy and Advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, shared his reaction:

“While inflation eats through paychecks and House Republicans hide in plain sight, working families are slammed by soaring health care premiums, frozen food assistance and rising bills. From the grocery aisles to the doctor’s office, Trump’s economic circus keeps jacking up costs and squeezing household budgets.”

This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump’s actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America’s workers.

Polling and Economic Indicators on Trump’s Handling of the Economy:

• Americans are worried about health insurance premiums rising: Polling from Groundwork and Data for Progress shows that 75% of voters are concerned about health insurance premiums rising, including 47% who are “very concerned.”
  • 42% of voters blame Trump and Republicans in Congress for rising premiums, while only 25% blame Democrats.
  • 57% say Trump and Republicans are not focused on lowering health care costs.
• Awareness of the looming SNAP funding crisis is widespread. Groundwork and Data for Progress polling also finds that 81% of voters have heard about SNAP running out of funding in November.
  • If millions temporarily lose access to food assistance due to the government shutdown, 44% of voters say they would blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, compared to 31% who would blame Democrats.
• Consumer confidence continues to slide. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell again in October to 94.6, marking its third straight monthly drop.
  • The Expectations Index — which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and job conditions — fell 2.9 points to 71.5. It has remained below the 80-point level that often signals an impending recession since February 2025.
  • Consumers’ assessments of their current financial situation remain below average, and the share of consumers who believe the economy is already in a recession rose for the third consecutive month.
  • Confidence dropped for consumers making less than $75,000, while it jumped the most for those making more than $200,000 — a clear sign that everyday Americans are growing more worried about their finances, as the K-shaped economy deepens.
  • Consumers are tightening their belts ahead of the holidays, planning to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift items as tariffs and rising prices weigh on budgets.
• Tariff turmoil is deepening anxiety. Rather than backing off the tariffs that are driving up prices, Trump is doubling down — announcing a 10% hike on Canadian goods just days after a political ad, a move that signals economic policy by retaliation rather than strategy.
• Rate cuts signal rising alarm. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate cut underscores growing concern that the economy is faltering. Job growth has stalled, household spending is weakening, the housing market remains frozen, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% goal.
• Trump’s approval ratings, both overall and on the economy, have hit record lows. In new data released this week, the president has received the worst economic marks since Navigator began tracking it in 2018, as overall approval (-16) and economic rating (-21) have both fallen.
  • A separate poll by You Gov also showed that his approval on jobs and the economy continue to decline, with a net approval of -22, down from -15 two weeks ago.
  • A poll from The Economist showed that Trump’s net approval rating is -18%, down 1.3 points since last week. This is his lowest approval rating in the tracker, and three percentage-points lower than at any point in his first term.
  • Another poll from Economist/YouGov polling showed that Trump’s net approval has dipped to a second-term low of 39% while 58% disapprove of his job performance.
  • The same Economist/YouGov poll found that just 20% of adults under 30 approve of Trump’s job handling, while 75% disapprove. This is a 30-point drop from February, when 50% of 18- to 29-year-olds approved of Trump.

Additional Indicators:

• Layoff announcements are mounting across major employers. In the last week alone, General Motors, Paramount, Amazon, and Target announced a combined 5,500 job cuts. Widespread layoff announcements underscore growing pressure on the job market, with many companies citing rising operational costs, driven by President Trump’s tariffs.
• Home sales remain sluggish: According to the latest pending home sales report, contract signings for new home purchases remain at unhealthy levels. The weakening job market is fueling the trend, according to the National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, despite lower mortgage rates.
  • Additionally, mortgage purchase applications have been essentially flat over the past 20 weeks, even as mortgage rates have decreased.
• Freight demand continues to weaken. The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), a key measure of truckload demand, had its lowest October reading on record, falling 19% over the past. Freight volumes remain 15% below 2023 levels, signaling a broader decline in business and consumer demand in the midst of Trump’s trade chaos.
• Packaged food giants warn of waning demand. Kraft Heinz lowered its sales outlook, with executives saying U.S. shopper sentiment has fallen to historic lows.
  • The company expects sales to decline by up to 3.5% this year, citing weaker U.S. retail demand and headwinds from higher ingredient costs, amidst nutrition assistance cuts from the Republican budget law and the government shutdown.
  • Other major food companies echo the strain: Mondelez International Inc. said squeezed consumers are prioritizing essentials over snacks, as their budgets are strained.
• Economic pressures are weighing on consumers’ spending habits. Chipotle executives reported that sales among low- and middle-income customers — who make up roughly 40% of the company’s business — have declined as concerns about inflation and the broader economy grow.
  • The pullback is especially pronounced among 25- to 35-year-olds, reflecting a wider slowdown across restaurants and other discretionary categories.

Expert Commentary:

• Executive Director at Groundwork Collaborative Lindsay Owens reacted to new polls revealing voters’ trust in Democrats on economic issues: “For decades now, the conventional wisdom in American politics has been that conservative economic policies — tax cuts that prioritize the richest and largest corporations, deregulation that favors businesses over workers, and a weaker role for government — would build a strong economy where prosperity eventually trickles down to everyone. But recent polling confirms that Americans aren’t buying that anymore. For the first time since 2012, aside from a brief moment during the pandemic, Democrats are now more trusted to keep the country prosperous than their Republican counterparts.”
• Chief Economist of Navy Federal Credit Union Heather Long explained the split between market relief and household strain in response to the latest inflation data: “On Wall Street, many will cheer the lower than expected inflation reads. Now the Fed can cut rates and focus on the labor market. But on Main Street, people see the first 3% CPI inflation read since January. And the basics — food and gas prices rising — are driving that uptick, along with some tariff impacted items such as furniture, tools, car parts and used cars.”
• President of The Century Foundation Julie Margetta Morgan highlighted how Trump and Republicans are exacerbating the medical debt crisis: “The Trump Administration is creating a perfect storm of medical debt […] When millions of people get notices about their premiums doubling on Nov. 1, they’ll be faced with the choice to either go uninsured or enroll in plans with higher deductibles and higher premiums. Both scenarios leave families one fall on the playground or one unexpected trip to the doctor away from massive bills.”